Boston, Massachusetts, USA - There will be throngs of American marathon fans on Boston streets Monday doing something they haven’t done for more than two decades: Cheering on a potential American victor.

First place has been elusive for U.S. runners since Michigan native Greg Meyer broke the tape in 1983 (in 2:09:00), yet Meyer, himself, thinks that could possibly change, very, very soon. “I think Meb Keflezighi has a real shot to win,” said Meyer. “Meb should be in it for the win from the start.”

A potential victory by Keflezighi is only one storyline - albeit the most local - at this year’s Boston Marathon, the 110th running of the oldest marathon in North America. Defending champ Hailu Negussie of Ethiopia is back, and looking to keep a Kenyan off the victory podium - something that has only happened twice since 1991 (Korea’s Le Bong-Ju won in 2001).

Keflezighi, the silver medallist from the Athens Olympic Marathon, has wracked up two top three finishes at New York since those Olympics: second place to Hendrik Ramaala in 2004 and third behind Paul Tergat and Ramaala last November. This winter Keflezighi tuned up for Boston with a victory (43:43) in the USA 15K Championships in Jacksonville, Florida, his only race since pulling out of the IAAF World Championships 10,000 metres final in Helsinki. 

This year’s Boston field includes last year’s 1-2 punch, Negussie and Wilson Onsare, and several quick runners including two sub-2:08 runners from last year: Benjamin Maiyo (2:07:09) and Patrick Ivuti (2:07:46). Matched against that, Keflezighi’s PB of 2:09:56 could be interpreted as a liability.  Meyer, however, points out a qualifying mark in Meb’s favor.

“All the fast times ahead of him were on very fast courses,” he says. “Plus, Meb has run competitively on hilly courses.”

Indeed, competition, not lightning fast times, has become a hallmark of Boston Marathons of late. No runner has cracked the 2:10 barrier in four years. (The course record is still Cosmas Ndeti’s 2:07:15, run in 1994 with a notorious tail wind helper.) And more often than not, it becomes a struggle, not a sprint, at the end. Last year, for instance, many elite marathoners with gaudy PBs, ended up looking like mid-packers who had hit the wall by the time they got onto Boylston Street.

Prokopcuka, Tosa lead the battle to succeed Ndereba

In the women’s race defending champ and four-time winner Catherine Ndereba’s absence leaves the field wide open, and a possible late-race duel between ING New York City Marathon winner Jelena Prokopcuka of Latvia and Japan’s Reiko Tosa appears to be in the making.

The two fastest in the field, with 2:22:56 and 2:22:46 PBs to their credit respectively, the pair can expect a battle with a handful of others who have all dipped under 2:26: Lithuanian Zivile Balciunaite, Alevtina Biktimirova of Russia, Italy's Bruna Genovese, Kenyan Rita Jeptoo, and Olivera Jevtic of Serbia & Montenegro.

Culpepper adds to US spotlight

But as far as locals are concerned, the primary focus will be the men’s race.

In addition to Keflezighi, fellow American Alan Culpepper is back, and looking to improve on his fourth place finish from last year. Culpepper is coming off what he called his “worst” marathon of his career, a 12th place (2:13:20) in Chicago. Yet last year in Boston, Culpepper ran intelligently late in the race to pass gobs of runners, a strategy that should work well again on Patriot’s Day.

Keflezighi, too, has indicated that he will take a page from Bill Rodgers Boston Marathon textbook and respect the early Boston down hills, saving much for a late-race charge. That strategy - easy to say, harder to execute - could mimic Athens in its results, maybe even earning Keflezighi the historic laurel wreath.

“If an American wins it would be a nice boost for Americans,” said Meyer.

And a great time to be in Boston.

Dave Kuehls for the IAAF