2008 - End of Year Review - LONG DISTANCE, Track
Kenenisa Bekele adds the 5000m gold to the 10,000m title he won earlier in the week (Getty Images)
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Monte-Carlo - In the sixth part of their end of year review, statisticians A. Lennart Julin and Mirko Jalava continue with their appraisal of this year, here concentrating with the highlights of the LONG DISTANCE track races which took place in 2008.
MEN
5000m
Kenenisa Bekele won all of his five 5000m finals during the season extending his win streak to 11 finals now. 5000m World record holder (12:37.35 in 2004) whose last loss at the distance came in London 28 July 2006 to Bernard Lagat (USA – 12:59.22 to 13:00.04), started his 2008 season with a 13:49.67 win at the African Champs in Addis Ababa in May. Bekele then won in a fast 12:58.94 at the Fanny Blankers Koen Games in Hengelo before winning in Rabat in June.
In Beijing, Bekele won in rampant style sprinting away from Eliud Kipchoge early before fully enjoying the final straight and won the Olympic gold in 12:57.82, his first over 5000m distance. In doing so he completed a 5000m/10,000m double, the first time since countryman Miruts Yifter did it in Moscow 1980 following Lasse Virén (FIN) who had done so both in 1972 and 1976.
The 24-year-old Kipchoge got the silver in 13:02.80 bettering his bronze medal finish from the Athens Olympics 2004. Bekele went on to race once more in this event ending up with another win and a world leading 12:50.18 time from the Weltklasse meeting in Zürich at the end of August. 2007 World champion Lagat faded to ninth place in Beijing in 13:26.89.
Kenya has an unbelievable 40 athletes in the world top 100 with Ethiopia a strong second with 17. Spain has seven for the third place.
10,000m
Like usual, there were only a few meaningful 10,000m races during the season. The first one was in Hengelo on May 24 when 25-year-old Sileshi Sihine (ETH), the silver medalist from the 2004 Olympics behind Kenenisa Bekele, won in a then world leading 26:50.53.
The experienced Sihine, who has recorded a sub 27-minute 10,000m clocking for five consecutive years now, was really challenging his World record holder (26:17.53 in 2005) countryman Bekele for the Olympic gold.
With the addition of two-time champion (1996 / 2000) 35-year-old Haile Gebrselassie from the same country also in the mix in Beijing a very interesting race was promised for the Olympics. The veteran had suffered a narrow loss to 10 years younger Sihine in Hengelo clocking 26:51.20 season’s best there for the second place.
But Bekele soon asserted he was the number one favourite in Beijing by winning the Steve Prefontaine Classic in Eugene in June with a world leading and World record threatening 26:25.97, his third fastest career clocking to date.
Bekele delivered his magic once again at the Olympics kicking early and grabbing his second straight Olympic title in 27:01.17 before Sihine’s 27:02.77 with Gebrselassie fading to sixth place this time in 27:06.68. Bekele has to wait four years now to see whether he can become the second man ever to win a 5000/10,000m double twice in a row after Finn Lasse Virén’s 1972/1976 feat.
But Bekele also has a chance to do something unique in 2012 – he could be the first man to win three 10,000m titles and three in row as well. Emil Zátopek (1948/1952), Virén (1972/1976) and Haile Gebrselassie (1996/2000) with Bekele have all won two in a row with Paavo Nurmi (FIN) winning in 1920 and 1928.
Kenya commands this event as well with 33 athletes in the world top 100. Ethiopia has 17 in second and USA 11 in third place.
3000m Steeplechase
27-year-old Paul Kipsiele Koech, the bronze medallist from the 2004 Olympics, was clearly the number one athlete in the 3000m Steeplechase, but it didn’t turn out well for him with at the Olympics.
The world leading athlete with 8:00.57 clocking from Heusden in July failed to make the Olympic team when he could only finish fourth in the fierce battle for the Kenyan Olympic spots in Nairobi in July. He only lost by 0.32 seconds to the winner Ezekiel Kemboi and 0.09s to Richard Matelong who took the third spot. Koech bounced back well from the disappointment winning in Zürich, Brussels and World Athletics Final in Stuttgart after the Olympics.
Defending Olympic champion from 2004, Ezekiel Kemboi was not able to defend his title in Beijing finishing in seventh this time. But another Kenyan, 2007 World champion Brimin Kipruto ensured that the unprecedented Kenyan streak at the Olympics was continued.
Kipruto just kept French shock medallist Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad behind him 8:10.34 to 8:10.49 to record a seventh straight and 9th Kenyan win overall at the Olympic Games. The French newcomer did break five consecutive Kenyan 1-2 finishes 1988-2004. The last non-Kenyan to win was Bronislaw Malinowski (POL) in Moscow 1980.
Surprisingly Kenya “only” has 22 athletes in the world top 100 in comparison to bigger numbers in 5000/10000m. USA is second with nine, and Morocco has seven for third place.
WOMEN
5000m
Just one year ago Meseret Defar lowered her 5000m World record by almost eight seconds to 14:16 at the Oslo Golden League meet. However, rather than a milestone kind of record Defar's mark turned out quickly to be just a passing episode in the history of the event.
Defar herself ran almost four seconds faster this year at the DN Galan in Stockholm – but still didn't claim another World record! The reason being her fellow Ethiopian rival Tirunesh Dibaba had run 14:11.15 in Bislett, Oslo some seven weeks earlier!
And if you analyse that race – as well as Defar's 14:12 in Stockholm – it is obvious that there is still considerable room for improvement of the record in a "perfect" race: Dibaba got very inadequate pacing with 2:48 and 2:55 for the first two kilometres and then had to do everything by herself successively speeding up (2:55 – 2:50 – 2:43!).
Although she got much better early pacing (Komyagina 2 x 2:50) Defar also ended up doing almost a three kilometres long solo run for home. The pace slowed considerably (2:54 – 2:55) in the middle of the race and the record appeared well out of reach. Then Defar managed to summon her resources in an astonishing way sprinting a 2:43 and missing the record by just one and a half seconds.
So even though the record has been lowered by 13 seconds in the last two years it is still not a record truly reflecting the capabilities of either Dibaba or Defar. If they would even help each other in a race – something highly unlikely of course – the record probably could go beyond 14:05 and even approaching the magical 14 minute barrier.
Despite that potential 15:41 – i.e. one and half minute slower than the PB – was sufficient to bring Dibaba the Olympic title. Amazingly none of the fresh runners, those that only ran the 5000m in Beijing, dared to set a reasonable pace, and those doubling up, Dibaba and Turk Elvan Abeylegesse as well as Russia’s Gulnara Galkina, of course could not have been happier.
With the ridicuously slow "pace" (3:39 – 3:06 – 3:13 – 3:06) there was a lot of jostling and one victim was Defar who almost fell after an incident with a few laps to go and afterwards was noticeably hampered. Dibaba had wisely done everything possible, running very wide close to the back of the pack, to stay out of trouble and in the concluding "burn-out" on the final kilometre (2:37!!) no one was able to muster that kind of speed despite being just as fresh.
Despite the recent rapid progress at the top end of the lists the situation even just below the very top shows no noticeable trends. The number of sub-15:00 runners is a good illustration of this apparent equilibrium: Already 8 years ago (2000) they were 24 and since 2003 the number has been 23 – 28 – 25 – 25 – 21 – 27.
10,000m
This is an event where the number of opportunities to compete is very small, basically the quality of the year list is determined by the weather conditions and the tactics chosen at the major championship race. This pattern is much more pronounced among the women than among the men where there traditionally are a couple of fast races on the Grand Prix circuit (Brussels and Hengelo).
Last year in Osaka the weather (hot and humid) resulted in a slow championship race (won in 31:55) and when the year was summarised statistically the list was headed by a 31:00 – a mark which would have been good enough only for 10th and 11th place respectively in the 2006 and 2005 world lists.
This year in Beijing similar weather conditions to those in Osaka was expected, but to the surprise of everybody it actually turned out almost ideal for long distance running. Something the runners never hesitated to take advantage of, especially not Holland’s Lornah Kiplagat who immediately went to the front and set an even and very honest pace in a ‘Radcliffe-esque’ manner.
Kiplagat stayed there for almost seven kilometres that went by in 3:00 – 3:00 – 3:03 – 3:03 – 3:03 – 3:03 – 3:02! Although the group of followers shrunk along the way the even pace was not sufficient to shake off all opponents. But then Turkey’s Elvan Abeylegesse decided to break the monotony with eight laps to go, shifted gears abruptly and suddenly everybody but Ethiopia’s Tirunesh Dibaba had to let go.
Abeylegesse did everything she could to drop also Dibaba, but to no avail and at the bell the favourite started her final sprint and although Abeylegesse really fought back all the way she had to be content with the silver medal. The closing stages of the race were absolutely astonishing: last 3 km 8:40, last 2 km 5:45 and last 1 km 2:48!
The final times were also remarkable as Dibaba and Abeylegesse with their 29:54 and 29:56 became only the 2nd and 3rd runner ever dipping under 30:00. Although they still were over 20 seconds off Wang Junxia's World record the character of the race clearly indicated that both runners could have run considerably faster with an even pace set-up. Actually it takes "only" consistent 2:57 kilometres to challenge the World record!
Even though the stupendous finish of the top duo created a gap of almost half a minute down to the bronze medallist the race still produced top quality also depthwise with 10th place at 30:55, i.e. faster than the world leading mark of 2007. So thanks to the Beijing weather on 15 August – and thanks to Lornah Kiplagat – 2008 turned out the best year ever for women's 10,000m running statistically.
But that also tells us quite a lot about the untapped 10,000m potential in many top runners due to lack of competitive opportunities with great weather and great competition. Of the thirteen dipping under 31:00 this year only four had done it before and five actually never had ran a serious 10,000m before 2008!
3000m Steeplechase
The 3000m Steeplechase made its Olympic debut in Beijing and as the youngest of the events for women it is of course still in a stage of rapid development. A process that has been unnecessary slow for mental reasons, the 10:00 barrier for much too long being viewed in awe as some kind of world class criteria.
This although even a quite superfluous analysis (i.e. comparisons with the men) showed that 10:00 should be equated with something like 9:30 for the flat 3000m, i.e. a decent time but still at least half minute slower than "world class". The fact that Russia’s Gulnara Samitova ran 9:01 already in 2004 ought to long ago have killed all misconceptions concerning the intrinsic value of the 10:00, but for some reason or another it did prevail in the mind of many athletes.
But intensified competitions as the event also became part of the international championship programme gradually has worn down the respect for keeping a km-pace closer to 3:00 than 3:20. If we use the 9:30 as a more appropriate definition of world class the number has grown quickly in recent years: From 5 in 2005, to 10 in 2006, to 18 in 2007 and to 23 in 2008.
Samitova's return to the event – with Galkina as her new name – also brought in a more daring attitude. In Osaka last year, she was somewhat too much on the offensive and ended up very tired in 7th place but in Beijing she got her pacing perfect running from the front all the way to the finish in the process. She thereby secured her place in the history books not only as the first ever Olympic champion in the event but also has the first ever sub-9:00 runner!
Thanks to Galkina and her tough tactics the Olympic final complete re-wrote the year list. The top-9 all ran their fastest times of the year and the top-7 occupy the first seven positions statistically, something that underlines the assertion that there is still much room for further improvements time-wise for just about everyone but Galkina herself.
Just consider the fact that Kenya’s Eunice Jepkorir despite her very awkward technique at the hurdles still is No 2 in the world with her 9:07. Or that Romania’s Cristina Casandra who ran her first World record no less than eight years ago now in the Olympic final set a new PB of 9:16, an improvement of almost 12 seconds compared to her pre-Beijing best!
IAAF