Hicham El Guerrouj wins Golden League Jackpot (© Getty Images Allsport)
ParisThis Saturday, at 2 pm, the start of the Men’s Hammer, launches the 18th IAAF Grand Prix Final in Paris’ Stade Charlety, which will bring the 2002 IAAF Grand Prix season to a dramatic climax. IAAF Consultant Mark Butler analyses the prospects for the men’s and women’s Overall Grand Prix titles.
Beyond the lucrative Individual Event Grand Prix Awards - graduating down from US$50,000 for first place, to US$5000 for eighth – that will be distributed in Paris on 14 September, the Overall Grand Prix Awards are also up for grabs in the French capital with US$100,000, US$60,000 and US$30,000, to be presented to the three highest points scorers respectively. Break a World Record and the prize torrent turns into a deluge, with another US$100,000 on offer.
Having already secured a four way share of the IAAF Golden League Jackpot amounting to 50 kilos of gold (approx US$500,000), it is no surprise that the leading contenders for the overall IAAF Grand Prix Awards are the same athletes who collected a share of that Jackpot last Friday in Berlin.
Morocco’s Hicham El Guerrouj (1500m), Felix Sánchez of the Dominican Republic (400mH) and the USA’s Marion Jones (100m) each won seven out of seven Golden League meetings - scoring 12 points each - and also won at least one IAAF Grand Prix meeting (worth 8 points). As such during the season they have each accumulated a maximum possible score of 92 Grand Prix points from eight meetings. The other Jackpot sharer, Mexico’s 400m star Ana Guevara, restricted herself to the Golden League, so has a total of 84 points from seven meetings.
MEN - Overall Standings before the final
=1 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 92 points
Felix Sánchez DOM 92
3 Ben Limo KEN 80
4 Christian Olsson SWE 78
5 Jonathan Edwards GBR 75
6 Tim Montgomery USA 74
If both El Guerrouj and Sánchez win in Paris, then each will have a total score of 116 points (92 + 24 for a win in the Grand Prix Final), with the Overall Champion being decided by the best performance according to the IAAF Scoring Tables of Athletics.
The tables favour El Guerrouj. His season's best 1500m of 3:26.89 would score 1289 points, which corresponds to a 400m hurdles time of 46.54, substantially quicker than the World record in that event! The seasonal best of Sánchez, 47.35, scores 1251 and is the equivalent of 3:29.59 for 1500m, a time which El Guerrouj - whose birthday it will be on the day of the final - has bettered three times in 2002.
Other comparisons within the range of performances likely in the Grand Prix
Final:
Points 1500m 400mH
1230 3:31.07 47.83
1220 3:31.78 48.05
1210 3:32.49 48.27
1200 3:33.20 48.49
As Sánchez will attempt a remarkable double in Paris and an hour and 35 minutes after running the hurdles will return to race the 400m flat, which poses a tricky dilemma for the World 400m Hurdles champion. Should he go for broke and run a fast hurdles time, or hold back and try to win with less effort. A slower hurdles time might leave him fresher for his second race, but by giving El Guerrouj a softer target, he will make it easier for the Moroccan to overtake him for the overall prize of $100,000.
However, with home favourite European champion Stéphane Diagana in the hurdles, Sánchez will need to run fast just to win his specialist event. If Sánchez does lose in the hurdles, he can still get maximum points by winning the 400m flat which is scheduled to take place after El Guerrouj's 1500m.
No man has ever won two events at a Grand Prix Final. However, in 1998 Marion Jones conquered this prodigious task when winning the Long Jump and 100m. Sonia O'Sullivan also came close with a first (3000m) and second (1 Mile) in 1993.
Even if he wins both events, it should be noted that Sanchez can only have one set of points from Paris credited to his overall score.
Kenya’s long distance ace Benjamin Limo is best-paced to take third place in the Overall stakes, but he needs to win the 3000m to stay ahead of Sweden’s European champion Christian Olsson, should the Swede defeat Britain’s World record holder Jonathan Edwards in the Triple Jump.
WOMEN - Overall Standings before the Final
1, Marion Jones USA 92
2, Gail Devers USA 87
3, Ana Guevara MEX 84
4 Tatyana Shikolenko RUS 83
=5, Berhane Adere ETH 82
Osleidys Menéndez CUB 82
Four years after her previous win, Marion Jones is set to collect a second Overall IAAF Grand Prix title. She holds a five-point lead from US sprint hurdler Gail Devers, which means Jones could finish second in the 100m and still win the title.
Yet to conceive that Jones would happily settle for second is impossible, especially as her great rival World 100m champion Zhanna Pintusevich-Block of the Ukraine is also in the race, giving the American Olympic champion all the motivation required.
In the 100m hurdles, Devers faces another tough race against her Berlin conqueror Brigitte Foster of Jamaica, which gives Ana Guevara the opportunity to move into second place overall, should she maintain her unbeaten streak this year. The only previous Mexican Grand Prix success was by Arturo Barrios, who won the 5000m in 1987 and 1989.
