There is a reasonable probability that athletes who have achieved a high level of success as a junior will go on to be successful seniors. This study tested the idea by following Australian and New Zealand athletes taking part in the IAAF World Junior Championship (WJC) from 1986 to 2006 through to senior global and Commonwealth Games performances - or otherwise.
It was found that 22% of Australian and 32% of New Zealand WJC medallists and finalists went on to become global medallists or finalists or to win a Commonwealth Games medal as seniors. The probability is greater if the athlete won a WJC medal and much less if the athlete merely competed in the WJC or did not take part at all. At the same time, the overall attrition rate of Australian and New Zealand athletes who competed at a WJC but did not go on to represent their country at the senior level was high (~72%).
The authors suggest that strategies to produce successful senior athletes, should be based on: 1) producing more WJC medallists and finalists; 2) retaining juniors in the sport through to the senior grade; 3) concentrating resources on WJC medallists and junior finalists.