Paula Radcliffe, the IAAF's new World Cross-country champion, is considering an attempt on the world best for the half-marathon by racing in Lisbon, Portugal, next weekend.
Radcliffe lifted the IAAF World Cross-country title after a thrilling battle with Ethiopia's two-time champion, Gete Wami, over a gruelling eight-kilometre quagmire at the Wellington Hippodrome in Ostend on Saturday.
But the 27-year-old Briton - the only woman to have won both junior and senior World Cross titles - makes little secret that she believes she is probably best when racing on the road. She even has the IAAF World Half-marathon title, won in Veracruz, Mexico, last year, to prove that.
Now, though, Radcliffe reckons that she is good enough shape to chase the half-marathon world best of 66min 40sec set by Ingrid Kristiansen, of Norway, in 1987 (that course in Sandnes is of disputed measurement; some statisticians only recognise Masako Chiba's 66:43, set in Tokyo in 1997, as the world best).
Radcliffe's British record, 67:07, set in last autumn's Great North Run, already ranks her fifth on the world all-time list. The Lisbon course's generally downhill nature could help Radcliffe come very close to the record.
Detailed physiological tests on Radcliffe after she returned from a recent high altitude training trip to New Mexico suggest that while she is in good shape for running an eight-kilometre cross-country race, she is in even etter form for the one-hour-plus of hard effort demanded by the half-marathon.
"I've never tested anyone with readings as good as Paula's and I've never seen any published anywhere that compare," says Andy Jones, an exercise physiologist who works as a consultant to UK Athletics, and who has been monitoring Radcliffe ever since she was a 17-year-old about to start student life at Loughborough University.
Jones's analysis work looks at three areas - running economy, lactate threshold (which measures how quickly a runner tires), and VO2 max, the runner's oxygen capacity.
"Paula is outstanding. She hardly produces any lactate, she has a very high VO2 and is the most economic runner I have measured," says Jones.
Jones also testifies to Radcliffe's mental determination. "I have to watch her carefully on the treadmill. If I didn't stop her, she would just keep running until she fell off."
Jones believes that Radcliffe has yet to find her best event. "The longer it goes, the greater the margin she has over others because she is not using great energy," he says.
Radcliffe will make a decision on whether she runs in the Lisbon Half-marathon early this week, judged on how well she recovers from her exertions in Ostend, where she made a bold attempt to secure a famous double-gold, finishing second to Gete Wami and helping her British team to its second fourth place of the weekend.
"I haven't decided about Lisbon yet," she said. "I may do a half-marathon, or the European 10,000 metres challenge. When you come into the World Cross-country in good shape, you;re going to be in good shape to run a fast 10,000 or a fast half-marathon. It would be a shame to waste it."
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