Kisri versus Sato? – Tokyo Marathon preview

Tokyo, JapanThe 2010 Tokyo Marathon, the only mass participation Marathon with an IAAF Gold Label in Japan, is scheduled to start at 9:10AM (9:05AM for wheelchair) on Sunday February 28. It is the only major marathon in Japan with the start time in early morning.

Men’s course record under threat?

The course record, 2:07:23 set by Viktor Rothlin set two years ago, could be broken, for three runners with better personal bests will start. The quickest on paper is Rachid Kisri of Morocco with the personal best of 2:06:48 set at the 2009 Paris Marathon. Others who have run fastet than Rothlin’s mark are Kenyan William Kiplagat, who clocked 2:06:50 in Amsterdam back in 1999; and local favourite Atsushi Sato, who ran 2:07:13 at the 2007 Fukuoka Marathon, and will be looking for his first career win.

“This is the 13th marathon of my career, but I have yet to win one,” Sato said. “In Berlin, I was sixth but was not contending for the medal. So on Sunday my goal is to win my first marathon.” 

Although Kiplagat’s personal best is more than a decade old, he has not slowed down much. He clocked 2:07:05 at the 2009 Frankfurt Marathon, his second fastest time. As it turns out, Kiplagat’s first and most recent sub- 2:08 marathon spans a record 10 years. The previous record was jointly held by Stefano Baldini and Khalid Khannouchi, who both recorded their last sub-2:08 nine years after their first. Incidentally, Kiplagat’s 2:07:05 is the fastest ever for a 37- year-old.  So Sunday could be another record setting day for Kiplagat if he runs another sub-2:08 marathon.

At the pre-race press conference today (26), Kisri claimed to be good shape. When legendary marathon runner Toshihiko Seko asked if any particular training session gave a needed confidence boost, Kisri said, “There is a two loop course (total of 34Km at high altitude) in Morocco everyone runs in training. (Two-time World champion) Gharib ran the course in 1:55, where I have covered the same course in 1:54.” 

To the same question, Arata Fujiwara, who finished second two years ago with 2:08:50, said, “My 40Km run on February 3 was a big confidence builder. At 15Km I started to feel bad and started to think about quitting. However, soon, my rhythm returned and I was able to finish the run with 3:10 to 3:20 per Km pace. The fact that I was able to overcome the bad patch during the long run was a big confidence builder.”

Other men’s contenders

Kisri, Kiplagat and Sato are not the only runners capable of breaking the course record.  The defending champion Salim Kipsang, along with Charles Kamathi , Gudisa Shentema and Teferi Wodajo all have personal best under 2:08 making the mark within reach. Kamathi especially has high potential, for he is the 2001 World champion at 10,000m with a 26:59.49 career best. Kamathi has a pair of sub-2:08 marathons (2:07:33 in 2008 Rotterdam and 2:07:48 in 2008 Berlin) to his credit, but considering his personal best at 10,000m as well as his half marathon best of 1:00:22, Kamathi should have much faster marathon in him.

Shentema and Wodajo both recorded their personal bests recently (2:07:34 for Shentema in Paris 2008 Paris and 2:07:45 for Wodajo at Amsterdam 2009) and thus it is possible that they are in an upward spiral and can improve their personal best further. 

Another runner who ought to be able to run faster is Julius Gitahi, a 27:11.17man in the 10,000m with a marathon best of 2:08:57. Gitahi was a superb high school runner while in Sendai Ikue High school, also the alma mater of Olympic Marathon champion Samuel Wanjiru.  Gitahi’s section record in the national high school ekiden still stands, a mark Wanjiru was unable to break.

The most intriguing runner in the field may be Nicholas Kiprono. Although he clocked only 2:17:15 in his only completed marathon, he has three sub-61:02 Half Marathons to his credit in 2009, suggesting he may be ready for a breakthrough.

Guta and Biktimirova the favourites in the women’s race

Turning attention to the women’s side, the favorite may be Robe Guta of Ethiopia, the fastest in the field with 2:24:35.  However, Alevtina Biktimirova, who lost to Dire Tune by two seconds at the 2008 Boston Marathon is quite competitive and could be a surprise.

“I am in the best shape of my life,” Biktimirova said. However, her stated goal was quite modest, saying she is just looking to to improve her time from last year, while defending champion Mizuho Nasukawa and Akemi Ozaki were more aggressive.

“I am getting better and better every day starting in early February,” Nasukawa said. “I am going after my personal best, which is also the course record.” Ozaki is also going after the win and the course record.

Julia Mumbi, a Kenyan who lives in Japan is coached by Yoshio Koide who coached 2000 Olympic Marathon champion Naoko Takahashi, could also be a factor. Nineteen-year-old Yang Jing could be another surprise.

The race starts by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government building in Shinjuku and runs by the imperial palace, through Ginza, Asakusa and Tsukiji before finishing at the Tokyo Big Sight.  The race starts around 40m above sea level and lose most of the elevation in first 5Km, after which the course is mostly flat except for three bridges after 28Km.

A record 32,000 runners, selected from 272,134 applicants, will start the Marathon while 3000 will participate in the accompanying 10Km road race.  The weather forecast calls for rain, but what can slow down the race is the wind from the sea nearing the end of the race.

The men’s contest is a selection race for the Japanese squad for the 2010 Asian Games. The

Ken Nakamura for the IAAF

Click here for race website

List of Invited Runners:
Men
Rachid Kisri (MAR)  2:06:48  2009 Paris
William Kiplagat (KEN) 2:06:50 1999 Amsterdam
Salim Kipsang (KEN)  2:07:29 2007 Berlin
Charles Kamathi (KEN) 2:07:33 2008 Rotterdam
Gudisa Shentema (ETH) 2:07:34 2008 Paris
Teferi Wodajo (ETH)  2:07:45 2009 Amsterdam
Julius Gitahi (KEN)  2:08:57 2008 Tokyo
Aleksey Sokolov (RUS) 2:09:07 2007 Dublin
Nicholas Kiprono (UGA) 2:17:15 2008 Baltimore

Japanese
Atsushi Sato   2:07:13 2007 Fukuoka
Arata Fujiwara   2:08:40 2008 Tokyo
Yuzo Onishi   2:08:54 2008 Lake Biwa
Kurao Umeki   2:09:52 2003 Berlin
Seiji Kobayashi  2:10:38 2009 Beppu-Oita
Kensuke Takahashi  2:11:25 2009 Tokyo
Shigeru Aburaya  2:07:52 2001 Lake Biwa
Tomoya Adachi  2:11:59 2008 Beppu-Oita

Women
Alevtina Biktimirova  (RUS) 2:25:12 2005 Frankfurt
Robe Guta (ETH)  2:24:35 2006 Hamburg
Julia Mumbi (KEN)  2:26:00 2008 Osaka
Nuta Olaru (ROU)  2:24:33 2004 Chicago
Yang Jing (CHN)  2:36:28 2009 Beijing

Japanese:
Mizuho Nasukawa   2:25:38 2009 Tokyo
Akemi Ozaki   2:27:23 2009 Hokkaido
Miyuki Ando   2:29:07 2008 Osaka
Kaori Yoshida    2:30:58 2008 Nagoya